Qultist hoping that Trump helps them get their entire life's saving back from losing election bets. You keep holding the line my friend, I'm sure you'll get your money back any day now.
25z- Took an odd line in a 3 bet pot, what to do now that our hand is underrep'ed?
HJ ($25.35) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 100% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1] HERO ($84.52) [VPIP: 28.7% | PFR: 24% | AGG: 42% | Flop Agg: 51.1% | Turn Agg: 37.4% | River Agg: 28.2% | 3-Bet: 14.7% | Fold to 3-Bet: 50.1% | 4-Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 69842] Dealt to Hero: Ad Kh UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.60, HERO Raises To $1.70, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.10 Hero SPR on Flop: [6.31 effective] Flop ($3.75): 7c Qc 6d HJ Checks, HERO Checks Turn ($3.75): 7c Qc 6d 6h HJ Checks, HERO Bets $1.25 (Rem. Stack: $81.57), HJ Calls $1.25 (Rem. Stack: $22.40) River ($6.25): 7c Qc 6d 6h Ah HJ Checks, HERO Bets $4.50 (Rem. Stack: $77.07), HJ Raises To $22.40 (allin), HERO ??? I believe I made a mistake not c-betting the flop and delay c-betting too small (should've either checked back to realize equity or bet much bigger). Now on the river we're getting put to the test on the river with an under-reped hand. Thoughts on what to do here and what HJ could have here? HJ shows: Js Qs. HERO wins: $49.05
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Adobe Creative Cloud just sent out an email with the subject line “How to work beer remotely” ... with a funnel maybe? I’ll bet someone out there is wishing for an unsend button right about now.
MLB Sport model ⚾ Best rank games - Dodger run line -1.5 - cardinals run line -1.5 - Mets run line -1.5 - over Washington 9 * now if I have a ratio> 1.5 all my bets will be on run line. you take what you like.
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Betting lines moving now on Melania divorcing trump. What do you think she knows and what conspiracies would come from Melania actually going through with divorcing Trump.
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You lost a bet with your best friend and now you have to send an awful 4 line poem to your crush, the first line is" my ass cheeks stink and I need to wash it-" how do you finish the rest?
Now i posted a lot of artworks lately all were black letters and lines, so i wanted to know how my calligraphy would look with a little bet of color, and I'd like to ask everyone, is it best to stay monochrome or the colors actually are better ? This is one of my calligraphy pop-art collection
Key update: week 1 projections now include Vegas lines!
I didn't describe it last time, but I actually created 2 distinct kicker models: one for incorporating Vegas lines (for the current week) and one without them (mostly for forecasting future weeks). You'll see some differences from my previous post. I trust the model with Vegas lines just a little bit more (correlation 0.33 compared to 0.30). Here are the most significant shifts from last time:
Rosas, Succop, Carlson, and Lambo got substantial boosts.
Zuerlein, Myers, Bailey, and Gould got surprising downgrades. (You're gonna hate this, I know. Then again, I sense it probably won't change your minds anyway.)
Kicker projection errors have the lowest variance of all fantasy positions (standard deviation 4.4 points). The contrast with QB error is notable in the graph: QBs have the most projected point error, 7.5 points standard deviation, among fantasy positions. This might surprise some of you. Part of the explanation is that the range of kicker point outcomes is already more narrow than other positions-- even before subtracting projected scores.
An improved kicker model does not significantly reduce error (from 4.4 down to 4.1), even though it can improve your expected scores! This sounds contradictory, but it is resolved by realizing that accuracy should be measured by correlations and expected point outcome-- not by the vast sea of point error that all fantasy positions bring.
Knowing the error distributions can help you be ready for surprises, especially when you realize there can't exist any fantastic model out there to appreciably decrease point error. The following picture is a crudely simplified representation of the above, putting 32 boxes to represent the 32 team kickers. When you choose your kicker, you're getting one of those boxes each week, and it's impossible to know which one. One (1) very lucky kicker each week will score around +10 points above expectation, and the unluckiest 3 kickers will score 6-10 points below expectation.
I make little ($1-$10) bets online. I made this the day I could get the line in kind of a jokey way never expecting to win. Hating my low ball decision now.
Incorporated Vegas lines. I actually built 2 different models: the one I already presented for forecasting, and another model which uses Vegas lines for a little extra accuracy in the current week. I expect similar accuracy from both, but there will be differences.
Corrections to the way I integrated off-season changes.
I hope you guys don't hate this, but... the rankings are now slightly re-ordered. Instead of listing straightforwardly by expected points, they are ordered with a calculated adjustment for risk level. It reflects how I would personally make my selections. If everyone just hates this feature, I will remove it. Explanation below.
"Tier" Rank
D/ST
Week 1 Opponent
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
1
Ravens
Dolphins
8.9
9.6
4.8
2
Saints
Texans
8.4
4.9
7.8
3
Eagles
Redskins
7.5
3.1
4.8
3
Lions
Cardinals
7.7
6.1
5.1
4
Bears
Packers
6.9
7.5
9.6
4
Vikings
Falcons
7.3
5.4
8.0
5
Seahawks
Bengals
6.1
3.2
2.5
5
Chiefs
Jaguars
6.2
5.3
4.1
5
Jets
Bills
6.3
3.4
2.2
5
Browns
Titans
6.1
5.6
2.4
6
Cowboys
Giants
5.7
7.1
8.3
6
Titans
Browns
5.8
5.4
8.4
6
Patriots
Steelers
5.7
7.3
7.6
6
Bills
Jets
5.7
3.7
4.9
7
Giants
Cowboys
5.2
5.6
3.1
7
Broncos
Raiders
5.1
3.5
2.8
7
Colts
Chargers
5.0
4.1
4.5
7
Cardinals
Lions
4.8
1.7
2.9
7
Chargers
Colts
4.8
5.1
6.6
7
Redskins
Eagles
4.6
8.6
5.5
7
Rams
Panthers
4.4
3.2
4.0
8
Packers
Bears
4.0
4.7
5.6
8
Raiders
Broncos
4.1
0.4
0.7
9
49ers
Buccaneers
3.6
3.9
3.8
9
Steelers
Patriots
3.4
5.6
4.1
9
Jaguars
Chiefs
3.5
4.7
4.6
10
Bengals
Seahawks
3.1
2.5
2.7
10
Buccaneers
49ers
2.9
-1.9
1.3
10
Falcons
Vikings
2.7
2.4
-0.4
10
Panthers
Rams
2.4
4.7
5.5
10
Dolphins
Ravens
2.4
1.1
3.8
11
Texans
Saints
0.7
6.4
3.5
Remember last year week 1, when the #1 ranked D/ST was also facing Fitzmagic...? Get ready, D/STs can start with a wild ride...
Maneuvering "Blog topic" Week 1: Risk adjustment
I thought of sharing some things I find interesting, each week. Statistical nuggets that might help you strategize a tiny bit better-- or possibly relax a little more with your picks. This week I'll describe what's behind this risk-adjusted ordering. It has a very minor effect when all is said and done, so my main purpose is to use the idea as a window to get you thinking about risk. The key points are:
There's a small difference between accuracy in POINTS and accuracy in projected WINS.
I can re-order the teams with an almost negligible improvement to season ranking accuracy.
The fact that I can shuffle like this means there is a sensible tier concept (though there are still more "tiers" than you sometimes see), and you can worry a little less about deciding between a few closely ranked teams.
The following picture shows the point distributions of 2 theoretical teams. Which would you choose? Team Red is expected to score 7.5 points but is more uncertain, whereas team Blue is expected to score 6.9 points but with more certainty. For simplicity, assume your opponent's D/ST is expected to score an average 5 points, so you need to decrease the probability of scoring less. https://preview.redd.it/fmsd59o2atj31.jpg?width=747&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73c5f671f6aa7edded0ed6bde9bb966f506a1322 It's clearer to see: team Red is 40% likely to lose and team Blue is only 30% likely to lose, to your 5 points opponent. Even though team Red would produce a higher average score if the game were played 100 times. (Yes, it's opposite if the opposing D/ST is expected to score 10 points instead of 5. That represents a situation when you are high risk of losing and may need to gamble more.) If you're interested, here is the scatter plot of 2018 actual projection error vs. my modeled error, in the formulas I am using: https://preview.redd.it/4dwrcne0btj31.jpg?width=360&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d48ec0449cfe3d82d4b518e90d380e533c8bbb72 Truthfully, all the work of adjusting for risk makes a very small difference in D/ST ranking accuracy, so it may seem unnecessary. But the point is less about gaining an extra edge, and more about understanding that you won't make a huge difference by obsessing over two teams in the same tier. Of course, if this is your first time seeing the D/ST distribution curve (team Red), you might be struck by just how wide an uncertain it is, and wonder how we can make any projections at all! TL;DR ---If you only find this confusing, then my suggestion is: Choose in the order of rankings, but if you think your roster score needs a hail mary, go straight for the highest points available.
Rewatching the whole show, never noticed this line from Romero lol "I bet you right now some writer's working hard on a TV show that'll mess up this generations idea on hacker culture"
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